AlphaValue tracks the universe of Non-Investment Grade issuers under its coverage. For that purpose, it relies on its proprietary risk metrics which are highly reactive to changes in cash flow…

MedTech, which has historically been a defensive sector, has once again stood its ground even as broader markets have been rattled by the pandemic. But, digging into the details throws…

The Tesco Board is in the middle of a governance crisis for having dropped Ocado from peer performance metrics designed to measure that of Tesco’s top brass and their bonuses….

The COVID-19 was a costly event for investors in the insurance industry. The sector was among the most penalised sectors and many operators were encouraged by regulators to cut or,…

On March 23, we provided a sector review of earnings revisions pinpointing 2020 earnings down 32% on 2019 after a fast-forward 39% correction. The 2020 earnings expectations then were downgraded from €690bn…

While the surge in ESG investment has pushed the sector to record valuation levels, the health crisis has broken this trend. Due to containment, the sector is now facing a…

We look again at the list of 105 non-investment grade stocks that we highlighted back in late March as indicative of sorry news to come. That list was then expanding…

April 30, 2020 – The European telecom sector should stay healthier than almost any industry in this COVID-19 pandemic crisis. Telcos are also defensive stocks par excellence as they proved…

Fear is back in business as indicated by the rising number of stocks whose share price is in negative momentum territory (red line in chart below). Whilst the current proportion…

The ECB’s temporary capital relief illustrates perfectly the philosophy of the new bail-in regime. As long as it is only temporary, it is neutral from a valuation standpoint. On 12…

2020 should be at least equivalent to the severe 2009. Macros deriving from Coronavirus will destabilize both voids and rents leading to values decreasing massively in FY20-21. None of the…

After a near 6% gain last week, the Pharma sector is actually in positive territory ytd. While the search for safe-havens will back up the performance, it is not a…

As economic activity is sluggish, demand for electricity has fallen by about 15% in Europe, leading to a drop in electricity prices. However, not all producers are equal in the…

Of course, markets buy the direction of travel rather than the underlying assets and their spot valuations. That has been confirmed by the 18% gain of the Stoxx600NR since 23…

Two weeks ago we could see the surge of the European equity risk premium at 8.3% (21-year average at 6.8%). At the same minute, we were anticipating (sadly) a drop…

The Covid-19 induced crisis is really unprecedented. Indeed, it does not follow the rationale of an economic crisis which consists in solving unbalances which have accumulated during a former period…

The Covid crisis puts listed issuers’ credit risk profile under pressure. AlphaValue has essentially completed the updating of the outlook of its 460 European stocks. We experienced a wave of…

We repeatedly wrote on dividends in a COVID context (20/02: Pay-out thoughts; 16/03: Dividends, Oops!; 27/03 Vanishing divs.) to describe what was bound to happen but escaped most observers. It…

Given the aggravating COVID-19 disruption, the AlphaValue mining universe has witnessed a major sell-off. However, the base metal pricing correction continues to be less severe. One reason could be markets’…

Pensions, as an accounting and possibly a cash issue, are best kept under the carpet. Two things can wake up that monster: lower risk-free rates that kick future obligations higher…

In this strategy product covering 36 pages, we screen the combined AlphaValue & Baader Helvea coverage universe to identify investment opportunities following the extreme volatilities European equities have lived through…

AlphaValue’s analysts rushed the earnings-cut exercise as businesses dislocate worldwide with the stay-at-home policy. The amazing thing is that some corporates refuse to see the second order impact of the…

Who will be lending? It was clear from late January that the Coronavirus-induced mess was a supply-chain issue and an intercompany credit issue. In China, the true extent of the…

So far the communication from wind OEMs has been to say that it is too early to measure the consequences of the coronavirus on the business. The full impact will…

Amundi and Banco Sabadell have announced an agreement whereby Amundi has purchased the Spanish bank’s AM division. They are also entering into a 10-year strategic partnership for the distribution of…

2019 has been another buoyant year for the payment industry and the fintech industry as a whole. Consolidation or capital raisings have strongly contributed to the headlines while Facebook’s ambition…

Saudi Aramco, the giant state-owned oil company, is now listed since 11/12  on  the Riyadh’s Tadawul Exchange. With only 1.5% up for sale, the IPO raised a jaw-dropping $25.6bn and…

A number of initiatives taken by the Chinese government to strengthen its pharmaceutical sector have started to bear fruit – Beigene’s ‘zanubrutinib’ became the first innovative drug by a Chinese…

Roche is worth €233bn, only second to Nestlé in the European contest for the largest market caps. The six other big Pharma companies (including Bayer) will bring the total sector…

FDJ is a great firm. The French state is charging too high a price for the privilege of accessing a monopoly. The placing syndicate would do well to cut the…

While we harbour serious worries about the impact of negative rates on the good health of life insurers, we have no such qualms when it comes to Reinsurers. Their high-quality portfolios…

AlphaValue has conducted this study to highlight the main challenges and opportunities faced by the 5G initiators, ahead of a global adoption cycle. Key findings: -5G will bring about a…

Some news about the Cities of Paris and London’s Office markets, following the aborted WeWork’s IPO and the release of end market figures (Immostat, Paris, and Savills, London). City of…

The French parliament adopted last week new energy commitments for the next decade. France is now on board; it has joined the increasing list of European countries targeting to be…

Last month’s powerful rotation away from defensives into risk/ value/ cyclicals has shaken up sectors’ upside potentials quite substantially. Here is a summary view of where the upside potential by…

With a market cap about to overtake the €300bn mark, Nestle has become an issue for European equity markets. Nestle trades at 25.5x, presumably still an acceptable P/E. The issue…

In early 2018, we warned investors (see our presentation “_Reflation trade and other myths_”) that the reflation trade behind the banking sector’s recovery was misplaced and that Spanish banks were…

Institutional money’s latest fad after a crowded drive for infrastructure assets is to pile up again into private equity. There is ever more money flowing in on dubious TRI promises…

Additional gas supply coming from the US distorts an already tight summer market. Norway and Russia are not inclined to let go market share, leading gas spot prices to reach…

The Blockchain’s latest invention, namely stable-coins, have attracted several comments notably on the disruption risk for the banking industry. We believe that these comments are largely misplaced. According to well-informed…

The relative strength in European equity indices must be taken with a large pinch of salt. On both 15 and 16/05, we marvelled about the extreme concentration of market performance…

– Q1 19 results were decent on the P&L front – Volumes, prices and savings have helped – However, cash consumption thus net debt still a worry – Management reaffirmed…

Since the beginning of 2019, global iron ore markets have been rattled by oneafter-another supply-side issues. As a result, the key steel-making input is inching close to five-year highs. While…

Alcon will be listed on the SIX Swiss Exchange and the NYSE on 9 April 2019. All Novartis shareholders will get one Alcon share for the five Novartis shares held….

More than two years ago when the 10y Bund had plunged below zero signalling deflation fears, we looked at the behaviour of highly geared corporates to conclude that extra cheap…

There are governance principles that make good sense: relying on independent board members and relying on reasonably young experts. Reality rarely meet principles however. We highlight below firms under the…

Euro IRP (of which we are a proud member) hosted a meeting with FCA’s boss Andrew Bailey who made a surprising comment: no shrinkage of equity research 14 months into…

Institutional investors are gradually unifying their financial and non-financial approaches, we now offer a unique and disciplined solution to support them. In Europe : the rate of independent directors per…

Getlink, 15.6% owned by Atlantia and 5% by  Eiffage, may well have speculative appeal as the two companies indeed have a history of fully acquiring the corporates they invest in….

With Angie on her way out and Emmanuel challenged at home, Germany and France had a low-key confirmation in Aachen of both countries’ willingness to get ever closer, if slowly….